Chapter 5 National context

5.1 National circumstances

Environment: Malawi’s landscape has a varied topography and is dominated by the Great Rift Valley, which runs north to south and contains Lake Malawi and the Shire River Valley. To the west are the central plateaus, highlands (Nyika and Viphya in the north and Shire in the south) and isolated mountains (Mulanje and Zomba) (USAID, 2017a). In the mountainous sections of Malawi surrounding the Rift Valley, plateaus rise generally 800m to 1,200m above sea level, with some especially in the north rising as high as 3,000m. To the south of Lake Malawi lie the Shire Highlands, approximately 900m above sea level. The Shire River plays a very significant role in Malawi by providing water for generating hydropower (98% of Malawi’s electricity), agriculture, fisheries, transport, tourism, urban and rural water supply along its length, impacting the livelihoods of over 5.5 million people in the southern region of Malawi (Masi, 2017). Freshwater for irrigation in Malawi’s plantations such as Illovo Sugar at Nchalo is obtained from the Shire River; as well as other domestic and industrial uses (UNFCC, 2006). Malawi has multiple important waterbodies including Lake Malawi, (the third largest African Rift Valley Lake), Lakes Malombe, Lake Chilwa, and Lake Chiuta (USAID, 2015). Other rivers in Malawi providing water comprise of North and South Rukuru and Songwe in the Northern Region, Linthipe, Bua and Dwangwa in the Central Region, and Shire and Ruo in the Southern Region (Global Water Partnership, 2016).

In 2005, forest area coverage was at 24.3% while cultivated land covered 33.7%, shrubs and savannah woodlands covered 19.9% and the remaining 22.1% of Malawi was covered by water. In the upper Shire River catchment, there was an 18 % increase in agricultural land in the 1989 to 2002 period (Mtilatila et al. 2020). Forests and trees impact livelihoods and the economy through the supply of biomass fuels, provision of habitats for wildlife and biodiversity, prevention of land degradation, protection of watersheds and acts as sources of soil fertility (Hughes et al. 2019). Malawi has the highest deforestation rate in sub-Saharan Africa with the government of Malawi estimating that the annual rate of deforestation in Malawi is 1.0–2.8%. Estimation shows that the ratio of forest area decreased from 51% to 33% from 1990 to 2010 (Mapulanga and Naito, 2019). Malawi has very low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of around 1.4 tons CO2 equivalents (CO2e) per capita in 2015 by global standards (Hughes et al. 2019). According to Malawi’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the main sectors contributing to GHG emissions are as at 2015, forestry at 78% of the emissions, agriculture at 16% and energy at 4% (Irish Aid, 2018).

Soil degradation is a major challenge with soil losses averaged at 20 T/ha/year. This translate in a yield loss of 4% - 25% annually (Irish Aid 2019). In 2014, the average annual national soil loss rates were estimated at 29 tons per hectare, and soil erosion and nutrient depletion are reported to affect more than 60% of Malawi’s land area. The main causes of this degradation are unsustainable farming practices, increasing demand for agricultural land and wood fuels associated with a growing population. Chemical land degradation, including soil pollution and salinization/ alkalization, has led to 15% loss in the arable land in Malawi in the last decade alone. The annual costs of land degradation between 2001 and 2009 have been estimated at USD 244 million per year-an amount equivalent to 6.8% of Malawi’s country’s GDP. Between 2008 and 2016, urban household demand for charcoal increased by 35% and was worth more than USD 66 million in 2016 and provided employment opportunities for over 235,000 people (Hughes et al. 2019).

Climate: country experiences a cool tropical continental climate, characterized by two distinct seasons: a rainy season from November to April and a dry season from May to October. Annual rainfall ranges from 500 mm in low-lying areas such as the Shire Valley to above 3,000 mm in the northern highlands. Overall rainfall exhibits high inter-annual variability and is highly influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (USAID, 2017a). The rains can start as early as October, especially in the south of the country and can end as late as May, especially in the north of the country (Malawi, 2015). The warm-wet season stretches from November to April, during which 95% of the annual precipitation takes place. Malawi experiences large heterogeneity in rainfall regime, and there are big differences between the North, Central and South regions. Annual average rainfall varies from 725 mm to 2,500 mm with Lilongwe having an average of 900 mm, Blantyre 1,127 mm, Mzuzu 1,289 mm and Zomba 1,433 mm (Masi, 2017). In the south of Malawi, the wet season normally lasts from November to February bringing around 150‐300m per month, but rain continues into March and April in the north of the country as the ITCZ migrates northwards. Inter‐annual variability in the wet‐season rainfall in Malawi is also strongly influenced by Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures, which can vary from one year to another due to variations in patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The most well documented cause of this variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (UNDP, n.d.).

Average daily temperatures vary with seasons and elevation, with the coldest temperatures (12–15°C) in July in the highlands and the hottest (25–26°C) in October in the Lower Shire Valley (USAID 2017a). Mean annual temperature has increased by 0.9°C between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of 0.21°C per decade (Irish Aid 2018). A cool, dry winter season runs from May to August with mean daytime temperatures varying between 17 and 27°C, and temperatures falling between 4 and 10°C at night. A hot, dry season lasts from September to October with daytime temperatures between 25 and 37°C. The wet season generally occurs between November and April and the dry season between May and October. Average temperatures range between 18° and 27°C, and the wet season can bring average monthly rainfall in the order of 150mm to 300mm (Masi, 2017; UNDP, n.d.). Between 1967 and 2003, the country experienced six major droughts and incidences of flooding. 2011-12 droughts had severe effects on food security in many districts in Malawi, with approximately 2 million people affected, particularly in the southern districts. (Irish Aid, 2018). Floods in Malawi have been associated with heavy upstream rainfall resulting in too much water downstream that leads to the breaking-up of riverbanks. This is a common feature on the North Rukuru in Karonga, Likangala in Zomba, and the Ruo/Shire Rivers in Chikwawa/Nsanje. Malawi has also experienced flush floods due to prolonged torrential rains, such as the Phalombe flush floods in 1991 that killed over 1,000 people, and wiped out villages, crops, livestock and property (UNFCC, 2006). Intensive flooding in 2015 left many lives and livelihoods destroyed (Irish Aid, 2018).

5.1.1 National

Figure 3 – Monthly Climatology of Mean-Temperature & Precipitation 1991-2020 Malawi.

5.1.2 North

5.1.3 Central

5.1.4 South

Political context: The Republic of Malawi is a sovereign State with rights and obligations under the Law of Nations (Malawi Constitution, Chapter one). There shall be a President of the Republic who shall be Head of State and Government and the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Forces of Malawi (Article 78). The President shall be elected by a majority of the electorate through direct, universal and equal suffrage (Article 80(2)). The National Assembly of Malawi is the supreme legislative body of the nation. The National Assembly has 193 Members of Parliament (MPs) who are directly elected in single-member constituencies using the simple majority system and serve five-year terms. Malawi is a member of the United Nations, the Commonwealth of Nations, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) (Malawi 2017), the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), and the African Union (AU). Malawi was a one-party state since attaining her independence until 1993 when it became a multi-party state (Masi, 2017).

Legislative context: The GoM prioritizes climate change, natural resources, and environmental management in its development strategy, the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS II 2012–2016). The GoM has also invested in the Green Belt Initiative (GBI); an initiative which seeks to transform Malawi, through irrigation, from a predominantly consuming and importing country to a producing and exporting country (USAID, 2013). In 2016, Malawi made an ambitious 4.5 million hectares restoration pledge to the Bonn Challenge and the African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative (AFR100) by 2030 estimated at a cost of approximately 279 billion MWK or approximately 62000 MWK per hectare (USAID, 2017b). GoM in partnership with the World Bank and African Development Bank has formulated this Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR) under the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) to act as a framework for addressing the challenges of climate change that impact on the national economy and community livelihoods. The SPCR will build on the available enabling frameworks and efforts in climate resilience-building programs as stipulated in the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy III, National Climate Change Management Policy (2016), National Agriculture Policy (2016), National Climate Change Investment Plan (2013), and Malawi’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the UNFCCC (2015).

Malawi is a signatory to various international treaties, instruments and that cover climate change. These include the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. These treaties and instruments oblige the country to take various actions to address climate challenges including putting in place instruments such as climate change policies and legislation. Malawi is a member of the Least Developed Countries’ (LDCs) Group, the LDC Expert Group (LEG), and currently has a seat on the board of the Adaptation Committee and the Green Climate Fund (GCF) Board (Masi, 2017). The Government has put in place a series of legislative sectoral frameworks and strategies to integrate environment and climate change management in socio-economic development activities. Key ones include: Malawi Vision 2063; the Malawi Growth and Development Strategies; National Environmental Policy (NEP) 2004; NAPA 2007; National Climate Change Investment Plan (2013); Malawi Energy Policy (2003); Food Security Policy (2006); Disaster Preparedness and Relief Act (DPRA) (1991); Environment Management Act (1996) and the Disaster Risk Management Policy 2015 (Irish Aid, 2018).

Social context: According to the World Population review, January 2018, Malawi has a land area of 118,484 square kilometres, with an estimated population of 18,921,352 million which ranks 61st in the world. Malawi still has a fairly low population density of 129 people per square kilometre (86th in the world). However, Malawi is growing rapidly with a 3.06% (Masi, 2017) annual growth rate. High incidences of poverty, violence, unemployment, malnutrition, HIV and AIDS, high illiteracy rates, abuse, poor health, and psychological disorders characterize the country’s young population (MDGS II 2011-2016) (Irish Aid, 2018). About 85% of the people live in rural areas and derive their livelihoods from natural resources and agriculture (from small land holdings of between 1.0 and 5.0 ha per household of five people), with the remaining 15% residing in urban areas. About 48% of the population is below 15 years of age. The overall average life expectancy as of 2008 statistics was 37 years with fertility rates declining from 7.6 in 1984 to 2.8% in 2008 and later rising to 6.7 (Malawi Vision 2020). There has been migration from rural to urban areas (at the rate of 3.6% per year), and from densely populated to sparsely populated areas or districts over the decades from areas adversely affected by climatic hazards (especially floods and drought) to safer upland areas or other districts (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Management Environmental Affairs Department, 2018) and in search of income earning opportunities (Malawi Vision 2020). 33150 cases and 981 deaths were recorded in Malawi’s worst Cholera outbreak. Waterborne infectious diseases are a leading cause of child mortality and contribute to forms of growth retardation, including stunting and wasting with 48 to 53 percent of children under the age of five suffering from stunted growth (Republic of Malawi, 2012). Overall, records as to disaster damage provided by Department of Disaster Management Affairs, DoDMA and the Prevention Web (by The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNISDR) give critical information related to human and economic losses resulting from the disasters that have occurred in Malawi within last three decades. More than 47 natural disasters were recorded in the last three decades and these disasters range from droughts, earthquakes, epidemics, floods and storms. In these natural disasters, a total of 2,775 people was killed with an average of 90 people killed per year. Most of these (60%) died due to epidemics (National Water Resources Masterplan- Part II masterplan). Malaria is the most common disease in the lake areas, followed by respiratory infections, diarrhoea, anaemia, and bilharzia/schistosomiasis. HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are also common. Research conducted by Madsen et al. between 1998 and 2007 found a high prevalence of schistosomiasis in communities living along the shores of Lake Malawi. They found that the prevalence of urinary schistosomiasis ranged from 10.2% to 26.4% in inland villages and from 21.0% to 72.7% in lakeshore villages. Infection rates were higher among school age children ranging from 15.3% to 57.1% in inland schools and from 56.2% to 94.0% in lakeshore schools. The HIV infection rate in Malawi as a whole was 10.3% in 2010 (UNAIDS) (USAID, 2015).

Economic context: Agriculture is central to Malawi’s economy, contributing nearly 40 percent of GDP and roughly 90 percent of the country’s export earnings (USAID, 2017a). Maize is a dominant crop in Malawi, accounting for 28.8 percent of agricultural GDP. Groundnut is an important smallholder food and cash crop in Malawi contributing 1.6 percent to agricultural GDP. Soya and sunflower account for 13 percent of that sector’s total intermediate input expenditure, and account for 1.9 percent of agricultural GDP (Aragie et al. 2018). The agriculture sector is the driver of Malawi’s economy and provides employment to 85% of the workforce, and contributes 85 to 90% of foreign exchange earnings and 60 to 70% of raw materials for the manufacturing sector (UNFCCC, 2006). Over half (51%) of Malawi’s predominantly rural (86%) population live below the national poverty line, most (85%) dependent on agriculture for livelihood, and on only 320 United States Dollars (USD) per capita per year (Chinsinga, Chasukwa and Naess 2012; World Bank 2014; Zulu 2017). Average annual headline inflation in 2016 stood at 22.6%, slightly lower than the 2015 figure of 21.0%, with rising food inflation as the main driver. Power generation reduced by 30% due to low levels in the Shire River affecting economic activities in sectors such as manufacturing, which experienced low capacity utilization. Malawi’s overall GDP grew at only 2.7% in 2016, down from 2.9% in 2015. According to the poverty statistics for 2010, 70.9% of the people in Malawi are living on less than USD1.90 a day. The people living below the national poverty line are 50.7% and the country inequality trend (GINI Index) stands at 46.1 (Irish Aid 2018). According to the United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Report for 2014, about 62% of the population in Malawi lives on less than USD 1.25 a day and 89% lives below the US $2 a day threshold (USAID, 2015). Tobacco is Malawi’s largest export cash crop, accounting for over half of export earnings, followed by tea and sugar (Purchase from Africans for Africa. n.d.; FAO, n.d.; and World Bank, 2012). Fishing contributes about 4% to Malawi’s Domestic Product (GDP) and accounts for 60–70 percent of Malawians’ animal protein intake. An estimated 1.6 million Malawians derive at least some income from fishing, fish processing, marketing and trading, boat and gear-making, and allied industries (Brummet and Noble, 1995; Andrew et al. 2003). Wildlife is a valuable tourism resource as it can contribute significantly to incomes and employment. The sector, however, faces a number of challenges including poaching, poor supporting infrastructure, and low community participation in wildlife conservation (USAID, 2013).

Malawi is one of the poorest countries in the world, ranked 170 of 188 countries on the global United Nations Development Programme’s HDI. More than 70% of the population lives below the international poverty line of USD 1.90 per capita per day and GDP per capita is just USD 372 (2015). Both inequality and poverty rates are high. About 20.7% of the people are so poor that they cannot afford to eat a minimum daily recommended food intake, and at least 37% of children under five are chronically undernourished and stunted (low weight for age). Malawi’s wealth per capita, USD 8,409 in 2014, is much lower than the average for other low-income countries (USD 13,629) or for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole (USD 25,562) (Hughes et al. 2019). Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.7% in 2014, but slowed down to 2.5% in 2016 after floods in early 2015 followed by two consecutive years of drought, which has adversely affected the performance of agriculture, which accounts for about a third of the country’s GDP. The country has a GDP of USD 6.4 billion (2015 data), and per capita income (2015 data) is USD 34011. Malawi is a low-income country with 74% of Malawians earning USD 1.25 per day or less. Using national poverty headcount, approximately 50.7% of the population live below the national poverty line. About 24.5% are considered ultra-poor, meaning that they cannot afford to meet the minimum standard of the daily recommended food requirement. Levels of chronic malnutrition are very high at 42%, wasting is at 4% and underweight prevalence is at 13%. The 2015 flood damage cost event estimated at US$ 335 million, equivalent to approximately 5% of GDP. Land degradation is estimated to cost the equivalent of 5.3% of GDP each year with soil degradation a significant factor that contributes between 4 and 25% to the loss of agricultural yields in Malawi (Masi, 2017).

Lake Malawi provides the main source of the country’s fish production. Other important sources include Lake Chilwa, Lake Malombe and the Elephant Marsh. The sector has experienced considerable decline of commercially important fish species like Chambo (Oreochromis spp.) from around 30,000 Mt a year in the late 20th century to about 2,000 Mt annually in recent years from Lake Malawi caused by overfishing and climatic influences which result in reduced water levels and disrupt fish breeding and nursery sites. Weak governance capacity to enforce fisheries regulations, and control of illegal fishing and destruction of habitats, contribute to reduced abundance of fish stocks and fisheries resources in Malawi (Masi, 2017). The National Human Development Report of 2001 ranks Malawi as one of the lowest in terms of Human Development Index (HDI), placing it at number 163 out of 173 countries in the world (United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)/Malawi Government (MG), 2001). It is one of the poorest countries in Africa, with about 65% of its population living below the poverty line in 1998, and 29% living in extreme poverty (MG, 1995, 2000; MoA, 2005; UNFCCC 2006). The manufacturing sector currently makes a small contribution to national income (12% of GDP) and employment and there is limited industrial diversification. In addition, there are weak inter and intra-industry linkages (Malawi Vision 2020).

Technological context: Technology is a cross-cutting feature of Malawi Vision 2063 and the country will “heavily invest in research and development to encourage innovations.” A developing country such as It was recognised in Malawi Vision 2020 that the country needs information technology to achieve development in all spheres of human endeavour but in Malawi Vision 2063 the role and scope of technology in the envisaged transformation of the country has been greatly enhanced, including its application in adapting to climate changes. Greater use of geospatial technologies such as aerial surveys, satellite monitoring, and drone surveys could help address the limited human resources at field levels. Mobile phone technologies are rapidly improving communication and services with growing opportunities for informing Malawians on environmental issues (Hughes et al. 2019). The media plays a key role in raising public awareness on climate change issues especially in informing rural communities who suffer most due to adverse impacts of climate change due to their low adaptive capacity (Ministry of Environment and Climate Change Management Environmental Affairs Department, 2013-2018). The systematic use of new cell phone technologies, social media, video documentaries, radio and TV programs, and other information-communication technologies can greatly accelerate the widespread knowledge of proven restoration interventions (Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy and Mining, n.d.).

5.2 Legal frameworks

The vision of Malawi’s NAP aligns with the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy III (2017-2022). MGDS III is anchored in Water Development, Agriculture and Climate Change. The NAP process will address climate change management through improved community resilience to climate change through enhanced agricultural production, infrastructure development and disaster risk management. The MGDS III adaptation strategies for Agriculture, Water Development and Climate Change Management include increased agricultural production and productivity, increased land under irrigation; increased agricultural diversification, enhanced agricultural risk management, enhanced integrated water resources management at all levels, and improved weather and climate monitoring for early warning, preparedness and timely response. These will be the strategies the NAP will also prioritize. The MGDS III goals are premised on Malawi’s long-term development aspirations, well laid out in Vision 2020 but now needing alignment to Vision 2063. Malawi has also prioritized climate change, environment and natural resources management among the priorities within priorities of the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy (MGDS II). Government of Malawi has also developed the National Climate Change Management Policy (NCCMP) whose goal is to promote climate change adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and capacity building for sustainable livelihoods through Green Economy measures for Malawi. The policy outlines six priority areas for climate change management in the country which include: Climate change adaptation, Climate change mitigation, Capacity building, education, training and awareness, Research, technology development and transfer, and systematic observation, Climate change financing, Cross-cutting issues like gender consideration, population dynamics and HIV and AIDS.

The NCCMP policy statements are:

1. Reduce vulnerabilities of populations in Malawi and promote community and ecosystem resilience to the impacts of climate change;
   
2. Ensure that women, girls and other vulnerable groups are engaged and involved in planning and implementing climate change adaptation interventions; and
   
3. Ensure that communities are able to adapt to climate change by promoting climate change adaptive development in the long term.
   
4. Promote the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; and
   
5. Enhance carbon sinks through re-afforestation and sustainable utilization of forest resources.
   
6. Build capacity in all sectors and at all levels in climate change to attain socio-economic development utilizing the principles of green economy; and
   
7. Address capacity gaps on investment in skills and capabilities for negotiations, mechanisms for reducing emissions while supporting prudent environmental management and sustainable economic growth.
   
8. Enhance research, technology and systematic observation for climate change management, supported by appropriate capacity development and dedicated financing
   
9. Encourage resource mobilization and commitment of government for the prioritized technologies.
   
10. Enhanced financing for implementation and coordination of climate change management activities through increased national budgetary allocation, establishment of a Climate Change Management Fund, improved access to international climate financing (both multilateral and bilateral) and private sector investments.
    
11. Mainstream gender and issues affecting the disadvantaged groups into all climate change strategies, plans and programmes.
    
12. Integrate population issues into climate change management in the development agenda through an integrated approach which would reduce poverty, protect natural resources and reduce inequality.
    
13. Incorporate HIV and AIDS as well as gender considerations in all climate change interventions including adaptation, mitigation, capacity building and technology development and transfer.

The Government of Malawi through their Vision 2020 and the Malawi Constitution 1995 has put in place a series of legislative sectoral frameworks and strategies to integrate environment and climate change management in socio-economic development activities. These include:

1. The Malawi Growth Development Strategies;
2. United Nations Development Assistance Framework for Malawi (UNDAF);
3. National Strategy for Sustainable Development 2004;
4. National Environmental Policy (NEP) 2004;
5. National Forestry Policy of Malawi, 1996;
6. National Land Resource Management Policy and Strategies (2000);
7. Wildlife Policy (2000);
8. Malawi Irrigation Policy and Development Strategy (2000);
9. National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy (2001);
10. National Land Policy (2002);
11. National Environmental Action Plan 2002;
12. National Climate Change Investment Plan (2013);
13. National HIV and AIDS Policy, 2003;
14. Malawi Energy Policy (2003);
15. National Land Use Planning and Management Policy, 2005;
16. Food Security Policy (2006);
17. National Water Policy (2005);
18. Mines and Minerals Policy (2013);
19. National Transport Policy (2015);
20. National Construction Industry Policy (2015);
21. Water Resources Act (2013);
22. Mines and Minerals Act (1981);
23. Disaster Preparedness and Relief Act (DPRA) (1991);
24. Waterworks Act (1995);
25. Environment Management Act (1996);
26. Forestry Act (1997);
27. Fisheries Conservation and Management Act (1997);
28. Road Traffic Act (1997);
29. Local Government Act (1998);
30. Energy Regulation Act (2004);
31. National Parks and Wildlife Act (2004),
32. Gender Equality Act (2013).

5.3 Institutional arrangements for climate change adaptation

Malawi has several existing institutional structures to support climate change mitigation and adaptation policies (Malawi & Environmental Affairs Department, 2016). The Malawi Constitution explicitly calls for environmental support, and the Malawi government has addressed climate change at the national, ministerial and departmental level (Amadu et al., 2020). Coordination between government agencies is a significant challenge for implementing the climate change policy components since climate change is a cross-cutting issue affecting most sectors, such as agriculture, human health, energy, fisheries, wildlife, water, forestry and gender (Hughes et al., 2019a). Table 3 presents the evolution of the climate change agenda.

Table 3: Evolution of the national climate change agenda in Malawi: policies, programmes, institutions and linkage to political leadership (Cacho et al., 2010)