Chapter 7 National adaptation priorities

7.1 Key risks and adaptation options

The key risks and adaptation options are presented based on analysis and summary of past and current data and reports up to 2020. The risk levels are divided into three temporal periods: near future (2011 - 2040 which is the period for which most of the granular [sub-regional] climate projections are based; mid-future (MF – covering the period 2041-2070) and far future (FF – the period 2071 to 2100). Risk level is assigned based on the criteria outlined below and expert judgment as presented in the reports in the framework outlined in the NAP technical guidelines report. It is evident that there are inadequately projected risks, particularly beyond 2040 for most of the systems/sectors and how this gap can be addressed is outlined in section 8 of this report.

Risk assessment criteria (scores are provided in brackets, with a possible highest score of 24, and ranked as follows: high (20 or more; medium (15-19), low (14 and below):
The probability of a given climate hazard – The general probability for change in a climate hazard (such as temperature or extreme precipitation events) occurring.

  • High probability of the climate hazard occurring (3);
  • Medium probability of the climate hazard occurring (2);
  • Low probability of the climate hazard occurring (1).

The likelihood of impact occurrence – The likelihood that a change in a given climate hazard (e.g. temperature rise) will result in a particular impact (e.g. material failure). Examples of likelihood categories include:

  • Virtually certain/already occurring – Nearly certain likelihood of the impact occurring over the life of the infrastructure, and/or the climate hazard may already be impacting infrastructure (3);
  • __High __likelihood of the impact occurring over the life of the infrastructure (2);
  • Moderate likelihood of the impact occurring over the life of the infrastructure (1);
  • Low likelihood of the impact occurring over the life of the infrastructure (0).

The magnitude of the consequence – The combined impacts, should a given hazard occur, taking into account such factors as:

  • Internal operations, including the scope and duration of service interruptions, reputational risk, and the potential to encounter regulatory problems (1 - low to 3 – high);
  • Capital and operating costs, including all capital and operating costs to the stakeholder and revenue implications caused by the climate change impact; (1 - low to 3 – high);
  • Number of people impacted, including considerations related to any impacts on vulnerable populations (including, but not limited to seniors, low-income communities, mentally or physically disabled citizens, homebound residents, and children); (1 - low to 3 – high);
  • Public health, including worker safety; (1 - low to 3 – high);
  • Economy, including any impacts to the city’s economy, the price of services to customers, and clean-up costs incurred by the public; (1 - low to 3 – high);
  • Environment, including the release of toxic materials and impacts on biodiversity, the state’s ecosystems, and historic sites. (1 - low to 3 – high).

Table 7.1: Projected climate changes and impacts. NF – near future (2020-2040), MF – mid-future (2041-2069), FF – far future (2070-2099)

7.2 Ranking adaptation actions

The adaptation options listed below have been ranked using a set of criteria (Table 15) that is partly modified from Sinay and Carter (2020) to make it simple for a large group of diverse stakeholders to come to consensus easily on the priority adaptation actions which will be unpacked in the project development plans. The adaptation options are clustered under over-arching adaptation themes which are the most likely to generate synergistic and wide-reaching co-benefits for the country as a whole. The project development plans will take into consideration other specific criteria that will assess aspects such as alignment with SDGs, Sendai Framework and Country GCF programmes, and inclusion of cross-cutting factors such as gender, vulnerable groups, policy and legislative reforms, and knowledge and capacity building at individual, community, institutional and systemic levels.

Table 7.2: Adaptation options ranking criteria (Source: modified from Sinay and Carter (2020))

Adaptation Options – Ranked:

  1. Sustain and protect ecosystems and ecosystem goods and services including the integrity of water resources through: general tree planting and creation of buffer zones along riverbanks, lakes and wetlands in rural and urban areas; encouraging use of alternative energy sources and energy efficient appliances; capacity building and implementation of community based catchment and natural resources management; support agricultural intensification, and; enhanced law enforcement.
  2. Promote a climate-resilient food production system by implementing a range of strategies including: growing crops that are resilient to projected higher temperatures and early maturing to cope with the shifting growing season; use of organic manure to buttress high costs of fertilizers; provision of subsidies on farm inputs and access to loans; enhancing the infrastructure for and management of irrigation to reduce dependence on rain fed agriculture; strengthening and increasing the reach of extension services and training for farmers; access to drought and flood early warning information; provision of storage facilities for various crop and livestock products, and; creation of local markets through establishment of more agricultural companies.
  3. Forecasting and early warning systems for droughts and floods should be in place at sub-national scale and relevant for adoption and application in the different systems and increase funding to the national disaster risk management programs.
  4. Promotion of alternative economic opportunities for lakeshore people to alleviate fishing pressure and enhanced collaboration between the fishermen and the department of fisheries to promote sustainable fish utilization.
  5. In order to sustain energy production and distribution under climate change, the following measures should be undertaken: adopt alternative renewable energy sources like solar energy to diversify the energy mix and reduce environmental pressures from woodfuel demand; expand and reinforce water storage in dams by planting trees around dams; relocate settlement areas demarcated for dam construction, and; ensure that dams comply with all environmental regulations and laws.
  6. In order to ensure rural and urban water supplies under climate change, the following should be undertaken: restoration of the Lilongwe River catchment and dam catchments through re-afforestation; expansion of the Lunyangwa and Kamuzu dams; expansion of the water transmission and distribution networks; reduction of non-revenue water, and; exploration for new water sources such as the Likhubula project which extracts water from Mulanje mountain.
  7. Climate proof supply distribution systems (water/power), waste management systems (sanitation) and transport systems (roads, railways, bridges) and improve the connectivity within the different systems.
  8. Implement effective waste management in urban areas by: increasing the capacity of city or town assemblies to collect waste from residential areas; enhancing regular treatment of solid and liquid waste from industries and biomedical facilities before disposal and discharge; effecting automation and regular maintenance of the sewer systems to detect leakages and prevent blockages and obstruction; constructing landfills in areas less prone to floods, and; carrying out civic education of the public to change their attitudes such as towards waste segregation and recycling.
  9. Improve general population health through provision of sanitation and hygiene infrastructure and awareness creation, increasing the number of health workers, and relocation of people from flood prone areas.